# Market Thesis Research Bundle

Question: Given the September 2026 Apple launch, will Apple frame the new iPhone and foldable cycle as the start of an AI-led replacement cycle rather than a routine spec refresh?

What this bundle is: a reasoning and monitoring scaffold. It organizes public evidence into observations, claims, uncertainty branches, thresholds, and a watch plan.

What this bundle is not: primary evidence, live market data, trade advice, or a substitute for official, live, or current web sources.

Core tension: Given the September 2026 Apple launch, will Apple frame the new iPhone and foldable cycle as the start of an AI-led replacement cycle rather than a routine spec refresh?

Current inference to verify: {'stance': 'lean_no', 'confidence': 0.61, 'classification': 'current_inference_to_verify', 'summary': 'Pre-event Apple materials show AI as a central theme, but they do not yet show Apple explicitly framing the September cycle as the start of an AI-led replacement wave. The visible iPhone copy still reads as a conventional annual hardware refresh with AI features layered in.'} Treat this as a hypothesis that must be refreshed against live official sources, not as a signal.

How to use: read `source_priority.json` first, refresh sources in `live_verification_plan.json`, then use `fact_inference_split.json`, `thresholds.json`, and `watch_schedule.json` to decide what changed. Do not infer buy/sell/hold, position sizing, execution, or asset-price direction from this artifact.