# Market Thesis Research Bundle

Question: Given the U.S. data-center ghost-demand problem and Texas-style queue freezes, will at least one major utility or ISO begin publicly separating contracted AI load from speculative queue requests in planning or earnings materials by year-end 2026?

What this bundle is: a reasoning and monitoring scaffold. It organizes public evidence into observations, claims, uncertainty branches, thresholds, and a watch plan.

What this bundle is not: primary evidence, live market data, trade advice, or a substitute for official, live, or current web sources.

Core tension: Given the U.S. data-center ghost-demand problem and Texas-style queue freezes, will at least one major utility or ISO begin publicly separating contracted AI load from speculative queue requests in planning or earnings materials by year-end 2026?

Current inference to verify: {'answer': 'yes', 'timing': 'already_observed_before_cutoff', 'confidence': 0.97, 'statement': 'Public separation has already appeared in major utility and ISO materials before the cutoff, using contracted vs pipeline, firm vs non-firm, and verified vs unverified large-load distinctions. The year-end 2026 threshold is therefore already satisfied on the evidence available at cutoff.', 'verification_note': 'The strongest evidence uses data-center or large-load terminology rather than explicit AI-only wording, so the operational proxy is strong even if the label is not always AI-specific.'} Treat this as a hypothesis that must be refreshed against live official sources, not as a signal.

How to use: read `source_priority.json` first, refresh sources in `live_verification_plan.json`, then use `fact_inference_split.json`, `thresholds.json`, and `watch_schedule.json` to decide what changed. Do not infer buy/sell/hold, position sizing, execution, or asset-price direction from this artifact.