# Market Thesis Research Bundle

Question: Given the surge in AI capex and bond-market crowding, will at least one major hyperscaler or AI infrastructure operator finance a new campus with project-level, asset-backed, or lease-backed debt rather than standard parent-level corporate borrowing by year-end 2026?

What this bundle is: a reasoning and monitoring scaffold. It organizes public evidence into observations, claims, uncertainty branches, thresholds, and a watch plan.

What this bundle is not: primary evidence, live market data, trade advice, or a substitute for official, live, or current web sources.

Core tension: Given the surge in AI capex and bond-market crowding, will at least one major hyperscaler or AI infrastructure operator finance a new campus with project-level, asset-backed, or lease-backed debt rather than standard parent-level corporate borrowing by year-end 2026?

Current inference to verify: {'direction': 'yes', 'status': 'current inference to verify', 'basis': 'Primary issuer filings and issuer IR materials already show at least one AI infrastructure operator campus financed with project-level, subsidiary-issued, non-recourse, lease-backed debt before the cutoff. The question should be treated as already satisfied unless later filings unwind or materially recharacterize the structure.', 'confidence': 0.97, 'scope_note': 'This inference is about the existence of at least one qualifying financing structure by year-end 2026. It is not a forecast of market reaction, valuation impact, or debt pricing direction.'} Treat this as a hypothesis that must be refreshed against live official sources, not as a signal.

How to use: read `source_priority.json` first, refresh sources in `live_verification_plan.json`, then use `fact_inference_split.json`, `thresholds.json`, and `watch_schedule.json` to decide what changed. Do not infer buy/sell/hold, position sizing, execution, or asset-price direction from this artifact.