# Market Thesis Research Bundle

Question: Given the U.S.-Iran conflict, will OFAC or allied regulators expand sanctions to shipping, marine insurance, or brokerage intermediaries in a way that materially tightens Iranian oil logistics by year-end 2026?

What this bundle is: a reasoning and monitoring scaffold. It organizes public evidence into observations, claims, uncertainty branches, thresholds, and a watch plan.

What this bundle is not: primary evidence, live market data, trade advice, or a substitute for official, live, or current web sources.

Core tension: The pro-thesis dominates as of the cutoff, but the de-escalation path remains open and should not be ignored. Material tightening is plausible because the action hits a chokepoint, but the observed effect could still be more incremental than total.

Current inference to verify: {'status': 'current_inference_to_verify', 'direction': 'yes', 'confidence': 0.88, 'inference': 'As of the cutoff, the official record already shows sanctions expansion into shipping and marine-insurance-adjacent channels, so the question is partly realized rather than purely forward-looking. The remaining verification task is whether OFAC or allied regulators add further intermediary-targeting actions through year-end 2026 that deepen the logistics squeeze on Iranian oil.', 'why_this_is_an_inference': 'This is based on official notices and guidance through 2026-08-31, but year-end policy continuation is still contingent on future regulator actions.'} Treat this as a hypothesis that must be refreshed against live official sources, not as a signal.

How to use: read `source_priority.json` first, refresh sources in `live_verification_plan.json`, then use `fact_inference_split.json`, `thresholds.json`, and `watch_schedule.json` to decide what changed. Do not infer buy/sell/hold, position sizing, execution, or asset-price direction from this artifact.