# Market Thesis Research Bundle

Question: Given the renewed climb in long-end yields, will major Treasury strategists and primary dealers reframe the move as a fiscal or term-premium problem rather than a pure growth or policy-rate story by year-end 2026?

What this bundle is: a reasoning and monitoring scaffold. It organizes public evidence into observations, claims, uncertainty branches, thresholds, and a watch plan.

What this bundle is not: primary evidence, live market data, trade advice, or a substitute for official, live, or current web sources.

Core tension: Given the renewed climb in long-end yields, will major Treasury strategists and primary dealers reframe the move as a fiscal or term-premium problem rather than a pure growth or policy-rate story by year-end 2026?

Current inference to verify: {'status': 'current_inference_to_verify', 'answer': 'yes, but as a blended framing rather than a clean replacement', 'confidence': 0.71, 'summary': 'As of the cutoff, official Treasury actions and TBAC materials already support a fiscal/supply/term-premium reading of the long end, but elevated front-end yields and market repricing toward hikes keep growth and policy-rate explanations active. The likely year-end-2026 outcome is a narrative hierarchy shift toward fiscal/term premium first, with macro-rate explanations still present.', 'not_a_signal': True} Treat this as a hypothesis that must be refreshed against live official sources, not as a signal.

How to use: read `source_priority.json` first, refresh sources in `live_verification_plan.json`, then use `fact_inference_split.json`, `thresholds.json`, and `watch_schedule.json` to decide what changed. Do not infer buy/sell/hold, position sizing, execution, or asset-price direction from this artifact.