# Market Thesis Research Bundle

Question: Given the soft July payrolls and cooler inflation prints, will the September 2026 FOMC communication explicitly treat labor-market weakness as the dominant policy risk rather than renewed inflation pressure?

What this bundle is: a reasoning and monitoring scaffold. It organizes public evidence into observations, claims, uncertainty branches, thresholds, and a watch plan.

What this bundle is not: primary evidence, live market data, trade advice, or a substitute for official, live, or current web sources.

Core tension: {'text': 'Given the soft July payrolls and cooler inflation prints, will the September 2026 FOMC communication explicitly treat labor-market weakness as the dominant policy risk rather than renewed inflation pressure?', 'category': 'policy_reaction_function', 'entity': 'Federal Reserve', 'theme': 'September 2026 FOMC communication and official framing of labor-market risk', 'resolution_boundary': 'September 15-16, 2026 FOMC statement, SEP, press conference, and official speeches through the meeting'}

Current inference to verify: {'answer': 'no', 'status': 'pre-outcome', 'confidence': 0.66, 'confidence_band': 'medium', 'rationale': 'Soft July payrolls and cooler inflation improve the case for more labor sensitivity, but the official Fed record through the cutoff still does not show a committee-wide pivot to labor weakness as the dominant policy risk. The latest statement and policy report remain inflation-led, and senior speeches are still split rather than labor-first.', 'counterclaims': ["Jefferson's conditional language shows the labor-risk frame is available inside the Committee.", 'Additional weak labor data before the meeting could materially change the communication.']} Treat this as a hypothesis that must be refreshed against live official sources, not as a signal.

How to use: read `source_priority.json` first, refresh sources in `live_verification_plan.json`, then use `fact_inference_split.json`, `thresholds.json`, and `watch_schedule.json` to decide what changed. Do not infer buy/sell/hold, position sizing, execution, or asset-price direction from this artifact.