# Market Thesis Research Bundle

Question: Given China's rare-earth posture, will a major Western auto or industrial OEM sign a long-term non-Chinese rare-earth processing or offtake partnership by year-end 2026?

What this bundle is: a reasoning and monitoring scaffold. It organizes public evidence into observations, claims, uncertainty branches, thresholds, and a watch plan.

What this bundle is not: primary evidence, live market data, trade advice, or a substitute for official, live, or current web sources.

Core tension: Given China's rare-earth posture, will a major Western auto or industrial OEM sign a long-term non-Chinese rare-earth processing or offtake partnership by year-end 2026?

Current inference to verify: {'label': 'yes', 'confidence': 0.98, 'resolution_state': 'already_satisfied_as_of_cutoff', 'not_a_prediction_signal': True, 'inference': 'A qualifying long-term non-Chinese rare-earth processing or offtake partnership already appears to exist as of the cutoff, via General Motors and MP Materials.', 'why_this_is_an_inference': 'The primary-source language supports the conclusion, but the exact scope and continuity still merit verification against later amendments, terminations, or superseding disclosures.'} Treat this as a hypothesis that must be refreshed against live official sources, not as a signal.

How to use: read `source_priority.json` first, refresh sources in `live_verification_plan.json`, then use `fact_inference_split.json`, `thresholds.json`, and `watch_schedule.json` to decide what changed. Do not infer buy/sell/hold, position sizing, execution, or asset-price direction from this artifact.