# Market Thesis Research Bundle

Question: Given frontier-model incidents and the wave of AI exclusions, will a major U.S. commercial insurer or Lloyd's syndicate launch standalone AI liability coverage or report meaningful standalone AI premium volume by year-end 2026?

What this bundle is: a reasoning and monitoring scaffold. It organizes public evidence into observations, claims, uncertainty branches, thresholds, and a watch plan.

What this bundle is not: primary evidence, live market data, trade advice, or a substitute for official, live, or current web sources.

Core tension: The assessment turns on unresolved evidence and live-source refresh.

Current inference to verify: {'status': 'inference_to_verify', 'summary': "As of the cutoff, standalone AI liability coverage is already verified in Lloyd's-linked specialist channels, but there is still no public primary-source evidence of a major U.S. commercial insurer launching a dedicated standalone AI liability product or of meaningful standalone AI premium volume being disclosed.", 'answer_to_question': 'partially_true_but_unscaled', 'confidence': 0.76, 'basis_source_ids': ['evidence_01', 'evidence_02', 'evidence_03', 'evidence_04', 'evidence_05', 'evidence_06', 'evidence_07', 'evidence_08', 'evidence_09', 'evidence_10', 'evidence_11'], 'what_would_change_the_read': ['A major U.S. commercial insurer publicly announces or files a standalone AI liability product.', "A Lloyd's syndicate, coverholder, or MGA backing reports standalone AI liability premium, policy counts, or capacity expansion.", 'Any primary source discloses standalone AI liability premium volume that is large enough to look like a real portfolio rather than a pilot.']} Treat this as a hypothesis that must be refreshed against live official sources, not as a signal.

How to use: read `source_priority.json` first, refresh sources in `live_verification_plan.json`, then use `fact_inference_split.json`, `thresholds.json`, and `watch_schedule.json` to decide what changed. Do not infer buy/sell/hold, position sizing, execution, or asset-price direction from this artifact.