# Market Thesis Research Bundle

Question: Given the AI data-center backlash and recent grid disturbances, will at least one major U.S. utility or regional grid operator formally require flexible-load or curtailment provisions in new large-load interconnection agreements for hyperscale customers by year-end 2026?

What this bundle is: a reasoning and monitoring scaffold. It organizes public evidence into observations, claims, uncertainty branches, thresholds, and a watch plan.

What this bundle is not: primary evidence, live market data, trade advice, or a substitute for official, live, or current web sources.

Core tension: Given the AI data-center backlash and recent grid disturbances, will at least one major U.S. utility or regional grid operator formally require flexible-load or curtailment provisions in new large-load interconnection agreements for hyperscale customers by year-end 2026?

Current inference to verify: {'answer': 'yes', 'confidence': 0.97, 'status': 'already_observed_in_part_at_cutoff', 'basis_summary': ['At least one major U.S. regional grid operator had already moved into formal flexible-load / curtailment-linked service design by the cutoff.', "The strongest evidence is from FERC's June 18, 2026 action directing all six RTOs/ISOs to justify or reform tariffs for flexible large loads.", 'PJM and SPP already had formal large-load structures that allocate curtailment or conditional-access risk to large loads.'], 'interpretive_note': 'This is a current inference to verify, not a trade or execution signal. The remaining uncertainty is mainly about exact final tariff wording, implementation timing, and whether the formal requirement is framed at the RTO/ISO level, utility tariff level, or both.'} Treat this as a hypothesis that must be refreshed against live official sources, not as a signal.

How to use: read `source_priority.json` first, refresh sources in `live_verification_plan.json`, then use `fact_inference_split.json`, `thresholds.json`, and `watch_schedule.json` to decide what changed. Do not infer buy/sell/hold, position sizing, execution, or asset-price direction from this artifact.