# Market Thesis Research Bundle

Question: Given NATO rearmament spending, will a major European defense prime or munitions supplier convert backlog into higher production-rate guidance or faster delivery schedules for missiles, artillery, or air-defense systems by year-end 2026?

What this bundle is: a reasoning and monitoring scaffold. It organizes public evidence into observations, claims, uncertainty branches, thresholds, and a watch plan.

What this bundle is not: primary evidence, live market data, trade advice, or a substitute for official, live, or current web sources.

Core tension: The assessment turns on unresolved evidence and live-source refresh.

Current inference to verify: {'current_inference_to_verify': 'yes', 'confidence': 'high', 'confidence_score': 0.88, 'assessment_note': 'This is an inference from current disclosures, not a prediction signal. The evidence already shows backlog-to-throughput conversion in at least one major European supplier, with additional corroboration across missiles, artillery, and air-defense programs.'} Treat this as a hypothesis that must be refreshed against live official sources, not as a signal.

How to use: read `source_priority.json` first, refresh sources in `live_verification_plan.json`, then use `fact_inference_split.json`, `thresholds.json`, and `watch_schedule.json` to decide what changed. Do not infer buy/sell/hold, position sizing, execution, or asset-price direction from this artifact.