# Market Thesis Research Bundle

Question: Given the softer July inflation prints, will the September 2026 FOMC communication shift to explicit conditional hold language unless August inflation reaccelerates?

What this bundle is: a reasoning and monitoring scaffold. It organizes public evidence into observations, claims, uncertainty branches, thresholds, and a watch plan.

What this bundle is not: primary evidence, live market data, trade advice, or a substitute for official, live, or current web sources.

Core tension: Given the softer July inflation prints, will the September 2026 FOMC communication shift to explicit conditional hold language unless August inflation reaccelerates?

Current inference to verify: {'label': 'unlikely_without_new_reacceleration', 'confidence': 0.63, 'inference': 'As of the cutoff, the more defensible reading is that September 2026 FOMC communication is still more likely to stay sparse and data-dependent than to shift to explicit conditional hold language, unless August inflation prints reaccelerate.'} Treat this as a hypothesis that must be refreshed against live official sources, not as a signal.

How to use: read `source_priority.json` first, refresh sources in `live_verification_plan.json`, then use `fact_inference_split.json`, `thresholds.json`, and `watch_schedule.json` to decide what changed. Do not infer buy/sell/hold, position sizing, execution, or asset-price direction from this artifact.