# Market Thesis Research Bundle

Question: Given recent PJM and Texas grid incidents, will hyperscalers increasingly specify on-site battery storage or microgrid capacity as a standard design requirement for new AI campuses by year-end 2026?

What this bundle is: a reasoning and monitoring scaffold. It organizes public evidence into observations, claims, uncertainty branches, thresholds, and a watch plan.

What this bundle is not: primary evidence, live market data, trade advice, or a substitute for official, live, or current web sources.

Core tension: Given recent PJM and Texas grid incidents, will hyperscalers increasingly specify on-site battery storage or microgrid capacity as a standard design requirement for new AI campuses by year-end 2026?

Current inference to verify: {'answer': 'No, not yet as a broad standard by year-end 2026.', 'probability_yes_by_2026_12_31': 0.31, 'confidence': 0.74, 'status': 'inference_to_verify', 'one_sentence_thesis': 'PJM and Texas reliability shocks are pushing hyperscalers toward more explicit power-resilience language, but the public record through the cutoff shows project-specific co-location, demand response, storage partnerships, and backup-generation planning rather than a uniform industry-wide requirement that new AI campuses must include on-site batteries or microgrid capacity.'} Treat this as a hypothesis that must be refreshed against live official sources, not as a signal.

How to use: read `source_priority.json` first, refresh sources in `live_verification_plan.json`, then use `fact_inference_split.json`, `thresholds.json`, and `watch_schedule.json` to decide what changed. Do not infer buy/sell/hold, position sizing, execution, or asset-price direction from this artifact.