# Market Thesis Research Bundle

Question: Given AI load growth and utility strain, will independent power producers or merchant generators sign data-center-backed PPAs or capacity reservations that materially extend project pipelines rather than remaining speculative pipeline talk by the next two earnings cycles?

What this bundle is: a reasoning and monitoring scaffold. It organizes public evidence into observations, claims, uncertainty branches, thresholds, and a watch plan.

What this bundle is not: primary evidence, live market data, trade advice, or a substitute for official, live, or current web sources.

Core tension: Given AI load growth and utility strain, will independent power producers or merchant generators sign data-center-backed PPAs or capacity reservations that materially extend project pipelines rather than remaining speculative pipeline talk by the next two earnings cycles?

Current inference to verify: {'verdict': 'likely_yes', 'confidence': 0.84, 'status': 'current inference to verify', 'core_read': 'The signed-contract pattern is already real in a concentrated set of incumbents, and the next two earnings cycles are more likely to add additional material disclosures than to revert to pure speculation. The strongest evidence is in utility-intermediated or existing-asset structures, so the main verification question is breadth and durability, not whether any deals exist at all.'} Treat this as a hypothesis that must be refreshed against live official sources, not as a signal.

How to use: read `source_priority.json` first, refresh sources in `live_verification_plan.json`, then use `fact_inference_split.json`, `thresholds.json`, and `watch_schedule.json` to decide what changed. Do not infer buy/sell/hold, position sizing, execution, or asset-price direction from this artifact.