# Market Thesis Research Bundle

Question: Given Japan's rising long-end JGB yields, fiscal anxiety, and yen weakness, will GPIF or major Japanese life insurers and pensions materially tilt back toward domestic bonds or reduce foreign-duration hedges by year-end 2026?

What this bundle is: a reasoning and monitoring scaffold. It organizes public evidence into observations, claims, uncertainty branches, thresholds, and a watch plan.

What this bundle is not: primary evidence, live market data, trade advice, or a substitute for official, live, or current web sources.

Core tension: The macro backdrop is directionally supportive of more domestic-JGB interest, but the public evidence only shows marginal or tactical responses. The hedge-reduction channel remains unproven from public sources at the cutoff.

Current inference to verify: {'direction': 'unlikely', 'confidence': 'medium', 'statement': 'Public primary-source evidence as of the cutoff does not yet show a material strategic tilt back toward domestic bonds or a deliberate reduction in foreign-duration hedges by year-end 2026. The visible signal is tactical and ALM-driven: modest rebalancing, selective ultra-long JGB interest, and continued diversification, not a disclosed regime shift.', 'basis': ["GPIF's policy mix remains fixed at 25/25/25/25 with narrow deviation bands.", 'GPIF FY2025 holdings show only a slight domestic-bond overweight after rebalancing inside policy.', 'MOF meeting summaries indicate reduced structural life-insurer demand for super-long JGBs and cautious long-end buyers.', 'Major life insurers continue to describe portfolios in ALM and diversification terms, with selective domestic JGB emphasis but no public hedge-ratio reversal.']} Treat this as a hypothesis that must be refreshed against live official sources, not as a signal.

How to use: read `source_priority.json` first, refresh sources in `live_verification_plan.json`, then use `fact_inference_split.json`, `thresholds.json`, and `watch_schedule.json` to decide what changed. Do not infer buy/sell/hold, position sizing, execution, or asset-price direction from this artifact.