# Market Thesis Research Bundle

Question: Given the nationwide data-center backlash, will at least one large U.S. state adopt a statewide siting rule that requires hyperscale applicants to disclose expected megawatt load, water draw, and community-benefit terms before approval, replacing purely ad hoc local negotiation by year-end 2026?

What this bundle is: a reasoning and monitoring scaffold. It organizes public evidence into observations, claims, uncertainty branches, thresholds, and a watch plan.

What this bundle is not: primary evidence, live market data, trade advice, or a substitute for official, live, or current web sources.

Core tension: Given the nationwide data-center backlash, will at least one large U.S. state adopt a statewide siting rule that requires hyperscale applicants to disclose expected megawatt load, water draw, and community-benefit terms before approval, replacing purely ad hoc local negotiation by year-end 2026?

Current inference to verify: {'answer': 'yes', 'probability': 0.89, 'confidence': 'high', 'status': 'inference_to_verify', 'thesis': 'A large-state statewide framework already exists in New York by the cutoff and functionally matches the ask: it moves approvals into a statewide process, requires a public hearing before permit approval, requires environmental review covering current and projected water and electricity impacts, creates separate utility rate classes for large data centers, and establishes a host-community benefits program.', 'inference_notes': ['This is a functional match, not a verbatim statutory phrase match.', 'The strongest evidence supports statewide disclosure/approval mechanics plus community-benefit requirements.', "The exact phrase 'expected megawatt load' is inferred from the electricity-impact and large-load provisions rather than quoted directly."]} Treat this as a hypothesis that must be refreshed against live official sources, not as a signal.

How to use: read `source_priority.json` first, refresh sources in `live_verification_plan.json`, then use `fact_inference_split.json`, `thresholds.json`, and `watch_schedule.json` to decide what changed. Do not infer buy/sell/hold, position sizing, execution, or asset-price direction from this artifact.