# Market Thesis Research Bundle

Question: Given the renewed oil shock and the new tariff wave, will the July 28-29 FOMC statement or press conference emphasize second-round inflation risks more than recent cooling in headline CPI?

What this bundle is: a reasoning and monitoring scaffold. It organizes public evidence into observations, claims, uncertainty branches, thresholds, and a watch plan.

What this bundle is not: primary evidence, live market data, trade advice, or a substitute for official, live, or current web sources.

Core tension: Given the renewed oil shock and the new tariff wave, will the July 28-29 FOMC statement or press conference emphasize second-round inflation risks more than recent cooling in headline CPI?

Current inference to verify: {'stance': 'yes', 'confidence': 0.75, 'status': 'provisional', 'interpretation': 'The July 28-29 FOMC statement or press conference is more likely to stress second-round inflation risks, tariff pass-through, and energy-driven persistence than to foreground the June headline CPI cooldown.', 'basis_summary': ['Recent official Fed communication has repeatedly framed inflation as still elevated because of supply shocks, energy, and tariffs.', 'Chair and other influential officials have recently emphasized inflation persistence and the risk that shocks feed through to broader inflation.', "Headline CPI cooled in June, but core CPI and the Fed's preferred PCE measures remain elevated versus target.", 'The oil shock and tariff wave are both live enough at the cutoff to remain salient in the July meeting communication environment.'], 'nonbinding_note': 'This is a current inference to verify, not a prediction signal.'} Treat this as a hypothesis that must be refreshed against live official sources, not as a signal.

How to use: read `source_priority.json` first, refresh sources in `live_verification_plan.json`, then use `fact_inference_split.json`, `thresholds.json`, and `watch_schedule.json` to decide what changed. Do not infer buy/sell/hold, position sizing, execution, or asset-price direction from this artifact.