# Market Thesis Research Bundle

Question: Given China's weaker growth and new stimulus push, will policymakers convert liquidity support into a measurable credit impulse and visible improvement in industrial metals, machinery, or property activity by year-end 2026?

What this bundle is: a reasoning and monitoring scaffold. It organizes public evidence into observations, claims, uncertainty branches, thresholds, and a watch plan.

What this bundle is not: primary evidence, live market data, trade advice, or a substitute for official, live, or current web sources.

Core tension: Given China's weaker growth and new stimulus push, will policymakers convert liquidity support into a measurable credit impulse and visible improvement in industrial metals, machinery, or property activity by year-end 2026?

Current inference to verify: {'status': 'current inference to verify', 'stance': 'lean_yes', 'answer': 'yes', 'yes_probability': 0.58, 'confidence': 'medium', 'summary': 'Liquidity support is likely to remain ample enough to produce a measurable but modest credit impulse by year-end 2026. The clearest visible follow-through is more likely in machinery and selected industrial-metal indicators than in property, where the drag remains severe.', 'not_a_prediction_signal': True} Treat this as a hypothesis that must be refreshed against live official sources, not as a signal.

How to use: read `source_priority.json` first, refresh sources in `live_verification_plan.json`, then use `fact_inference_split.json`, `thresholds.json`, and `watch_schedule.json` to decide what changed. Do not infer buy/sell/hold, position sizing, execution, or asset-price direction from this artifact.