# Market Thesis Research Bundle

Question: Given surging AI build costs and local resistance, will data-center developers increasingly fund new campuses by selling minority stakes or forming joint ventures with infrastructure and private-equity sponsors instead of relying mainly on retained cash flow and plain-vanilla project debt by year-end 2026?

What this bundle is: a reasoning and monitoring scaffold. It organizes public evidence into observations, claims, uncertainty branches, thresholds, and a watch plan.

What this bundle is not: primary evidence, live market data, trade advice, or a substitute for official, live, or current web sources.

Core tension: Given surging AI build costs and local resistance, will data-center developers increasingly fund new campuses by selling minority stakes or forming joint ventures with infrastructure and private-equity sponsors instead of relying mainly on retained cash flow and plain-vanilla project debt by year-end 2026?

Current inference to verify: {'status': 'inference_to_verify', 'answer': 'directional_yes', 'probability_yes': 0.68, 'summary': 'The current evidence supports a directional shift toward sponsor capital, minority stakes, and JVs for large or difficult AI/data-center campuses, but not a wholesale replacement of retained cash flow or project debt.'} Treat this as a hypothesis that must be refreshed against live official sources, not as a signal.

How to use: read `source_priority.json` first, refresh sources in `live_verification_plan.json`, then use `fact_inference_split.json`, `thresholds.json`, and `watch_schedule.json` to decide what changed. Do not infer buy/sell/hold, position sizing, execution, or asset-price direction from this artifact.