# Market Thesis Research Bundle

Question: Given the July 2026 tariff reset, will import-heavy retailers and consumer brands shift from generic uncertainty language to explicit tariff pass-through, surcharge, or gross-margin compression in guidance by the next two earnings cycles?

What this bundle is: a reasoning and monitoring scaffold. It organizes public evidence into observations, claims, uncertainty branches, thresholds, and a watch plan.

What this bundle is not: primary evidence, live market data, trade advice, or a substitute for official, live, or current web sources.

Core tension: Given the July 2026 tariff reset, will import-heavy retailers and consumer brands shift from generic uncertainty language to explicit tariff pass-through, surcharge, or gross-margin compression in guidance by the next two earnings cycles?

Current inference to verify: {'status': 'inference_to_verify', 'statement': 'The pre-reset record already shows a move from generic trade-policy uncertainty toward explicit tariff math, pricing actions, and margin compression. The July 24, 2026 tariff reset makes it more likely that the next two earnings cycles will show broader and more explicit tariff pass-through, surcharge, or gross-margin compression language in guidance, with gross-margin and pricing-action language likely to appear before surcharge language.', 'confidence': 0.77, 'not_a_prediction_signal': True, 'verification_window': 'next two earnings cycles through Q4 2026', 'key_test': 'Do post-reset earnings releases, calls, and guidance updates increasingly quantify tariff impact in dollars, basis points, gross margin, or pricing actions rather than staying at generic uncertainty language?'} Treat this as a hypothesis that must be refreshed against live official sources, not as a signal.

How to use: read `source_priority.json` first, refresh sources in `live_verification_plan.json`, then use `fact_inference_split.json`, `thresholds.json`, and `watch_schedule.json` to decide what changed. Do not infer buy/sell/hold, position sizing, execution, or asset-price direction from this artifact.