# Market Thesis Research Bundle

Question: Given IBM's profit warning and the AI infrastructure buildout, will major enterprise software vendors report slower deal conversion or weaker bookings because customer budgets are being redirected toward data-center and AI infrastructure spend rather than treating the slowdown as a generic macro issue?

What this bundle is: a reasoning and monitoring scaffold. It organizes public evidence into observations, claims, uncertainty branches, thresholds, and a watch plan.

What this bundle is not: primary evidence, live market data, trade advice, or a substitute for official, live, or current web sources.

Core tension: The IBM signal looks selective rather than sector-wide so far. AI capex may be displacing some software spend, but the mechanism is not yet broad enough to dominate all weak results.

Current inference to verify: {'classification': 'selective_budget_displacement_not_generic_macro', 'statement': "The current evidence favors selective budget displacement over a broad generic macro slowdown. IBM's warning directly points to customer spending shifting into infrastructure-related purchases and delayed large deal closes, while recent peer results from major enterprise software vendors still show generally healthy growth, backlog, or ARR with softness mostly framed as timing slippage, region-specific delays, or vendor-specific AI investment tradeoffs.", 'confidence': 0.69, 'inference_note': 'This is an inference synthesized from company commentary and reported results, not a direct sector-wide management statement.'} Treat this as a hypothesis that must be refreshed against live official sources, not as a signal.

How to use: read `source_priority.json` first, refresh sources in `live_verification_plan.json`, then use `fact_inference_split.json`, `thresholds.json`, and `watch_schedule.json` to decide what changed. Do not infer buy/sell/hold, position sizing, execution, or asset-price direction from this artifact.