# Market Thesis Research Bundle

Question: Given Circle's OCC trust-bank approval and the GENIUS Act regime, will at least one major U.S. money-center bank or brokerage publicly adjust deposit pricing, sweep yields, or wallet economics to defend balances against stablecoin-linked cash products by year-end 2026?

What this bundle is: a reasoning and monitoring scaffold. It organizes public evidence into observations, claims, uncertainty branches, thresholds, and a watch plan.

What this bundle is not: primary evidence, live market data, trade advice, or a substitute for official, live, or current web sources.

Core tension: Given Circle's OCC trust-bank approval and the GENIUS Act regime, will at least one major U.S. money-center bank or brokerage publicly adjust deposit pricing, sweep yields, or wallet economics to defend balances against stablecoin-linked cash products by year-end 2026?

Current inference to verify: {'status': 'unresolved', 'strict_reading': {'stance': 'no', 'confidence': 0.62, 'basis': 'At cutoff, the pack contains no primary-source evidence of an explicit deposit-rate, sweep-yield, or wallet-economics repricing by a major U.S. money-center bank or brokerage that is clearly tied to stablecoin-linked cash products.'}, 'broad_reading': {'stance': 'yes', 'confidence': 0.55, 'basis': "If 'wallet economics' includes tokenized-deposit architecture, sweep-routing, or cash-product redesign, several incumbents have already moved publicly in crypto-response directions, though not yet in direct stablecoin-defense pricing."}, 'note': 'This is a current inference to verify, not a prediction signal.'} Treat this as a hypothesis that must be refreshed against live official sources, not as a signal.

How to use: read `source_priority.json` first, refresh sources in `live_verification_plan.json`, then use `fact_inference_split.json`, `thresholds.json`, and `watch_schedule.json` to decide what changed. Do not infer buy/sell/hold, position sizing, execution, or asset-price direction from this artifact.