# Market Thesis Research Bundle

Question: Given the AI buildout and recent inflation warnings, will the next two U.S. CPI/PPI releases show enough pressure in electricity, electronics, or cloud-related input costs that Fed communication starts treating AI as a live inflation driver rather than a one-off investment boom?

What this bundle is: a reasoning and monitoring scaffold. It organizes public evidence into observations, claims, uncertainty branches, thresholds, and a watch plan.

What this bundle is not: primary evidence, live market data, trade advice, or a substitute for official, live, or current web sources.

Core tension: Given the AI buildout and recent inflation warnings, will the next two U.S. CPI/PPI releases show enough pressure in electricity, electronics, or cloud-related input costs that Fed communication starts treating AI as a live inflation driver rather than a one-off investment boom?

Current inference to verify: {'direction': 'lean_yes', 'confidence': 0.73, 'status': 'inference_to_verify', 'summary': 'Public Fed communication has already started treating AI buildout as a live inflation risk. The next two CPI/PPI releases are most relevant as confirmation of that framing, not as the first moment it appears. Repeat strength in electricity, electronics-related producer prices, or data-processing services would make the AI-inflation narrative more durable; a single hot release would be weaker evidence.'} Treat this as a hypothesis that must be refreshed against live official sources, not as a signal.

How to use: read `source_priority.json` first, refresh sources in `live_verification_plan.json`, then use `fact_inference_split.json`, `thresholds.json`, and `watch_schedule.json` to decide what changed. Do not infer buy/sell/hold, position sizing, execution, or asset-price direction from this artifact.