# Market Thesis Research Bundle

Question: Given TrumpRx and the MFN pricing deals, will at least one large-cap pharma company report a measurable shift toward direct cash-pay or government-linked sales channels in U.S. mix rather than treating the program as mostly symbolic?

What this bundle is: a reasoning and monitoring scaffold. It organizes public evidence into observations, claims, uncertainty branches, thresholds, and a watch plan.

What this bundle is not: primary evidence, live market data, trade advice, or a substitute for official, live, or current web sources.

Core tension: The assessment turns on unresolved evidence and live-source refresh.

Current inference to verify: {'status': 'current_inference_to_verify', 'direction': 'yes', 'confidence': 0.79, 'summary': 'The evidence supports a current inference that at least one large-cap pharma company, most clearly Eli Lilly, is already showing a measurable shift toward direct cash-pay and government-linked channels in the U.S. The shift is observable at the product/channel level, but it is narrow and not yet a broad enterprise-wide mix rearchitecture across large-cap pharma.'} Treat this as a hypothesis that must be refreshed against live official sources, not as a signal.

How to use: read `source_priority.json` first, refresh sources in `live_verification_plan.json`, then use `fact_inference_split.json`, `thresholds.json`, and `watch_schedule.json` to decide what changed. Do not infer buy/sell/hold, position sizing, execution, or asset-price direction from this artifact.