# Market Thesis Research Bundle

Question: Given the war-related inflation shock and tariff spillovers, will U.S. inflation expectations stay elevated or re-accelerate in the next two CPI windows, making disinflation look less durable?

What this bundle is: a reasoning and monitoring scaffold. It organizes public evidence into observations, claims, uncertainty branches, thresholds, and a watch plan.

What this bundle is not: primary evidence, live market data, trade advice, or a substitute for official, live, or current web sources.

Core tension: Given the war-related inflation shock and tariff spillovers, will U.S. inflation expectations stay elevated or re-accelerate in the next two CPI windows, making disinflation look less durable?

Current inference to verify: {'status': 'current_inference_to_verify', 'direction': 'stay_elevated_with_upside_risk', 'confidence': 0.66, 'summary': 'The current evidence favors short- and medium-term U.S. inflation expectations staying elevated over the next two CPI windows, with a modest upside risk, while longer-horizon survey and market measures remain comparatively anchored. This is an inference to verify, not a prediction signal.', 'interpretation': "Sticky near-term expectations are already visible in the latest survey and are consistent with the Fed's own discussion of energy and tariff pass-through. The unresolved question is whether the next two CPI prints reinforce that stickiness or instead show enough easing to restore confidence in durable disinflation.", 'verify_against': ['June 2026 CPI release on 2026-07-14', 'July 2026 CPI release on 2026-08-12', 'Next NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations release', 'September 2026 FOMC materials']} Treat this as a hypothesis that must be refreshed against live official sources, not as a signal.

How to use: read `source_priority.json` first, refresh sources in `live_verification_plan.json`, then use `fact_inference_split.json`, `thresholds.json`, and `watch_schedule.json` to decide what changed. Do not infer buy/sell/hold, position sizing, execution, or asset-price direction from this artifact.