# Market Thesis Research Bundle

Question: Given the July 20 expiry of the 10% universal tariff regime, will the administration replace it with a narrower or extended tariff structure that import-sensitive retailers and industrials must incorporate into guidance rather than treating it as temporary brinkmanship?

What this bundle is: a reasoning and monitoring scaffold. It organizes public evidence into observations, claims, uncertainty branches, thresholds, and a watch plan.

What this bundle is not: primary evidence, live market data, trade advice, or a substitute for official, live, or current web sources.

Core tension: Given the July 20 expiry of the 10% universal tariff regime, will the administration replace it with a narrower or extended tariff structure that import-sensitive retailers and industrials must incorporate into guidance rather than treating it as temporary brinkmanship?

Current inference to verify: {'stance': 'yes, more likely than not', 'probability': 0.69, 'confidence': 'medium', 'statement': 'As of the 2026-07-06 cutoff, the best current inference is that the administration will replace or repackage the 10% universal tariff into a narrower or extended tariff structure that import-sensitive retailers and industrials must incorporate into guidance, rather than treating the regime as mere temporary brinkmanship.', 'basis_source_ids': ['evidence_01', 'evidence_02', 'evidence_03', 'evidence_04'], 'counterweight_source_ids': ['evidence_05'], 'note': 'This is a current inference to verify, not a prediction signal. It rests on policy signaling and reported official statements, not a direct primary-source final order.'} Treat this as a hypothesis that must be refreshed against live official sources, not as a signal.

How to use: read `source_priority.json` first, refresh sources in `live_verification_plan.json`, then use `fact_inference_split.json`, `thresholds.json`, and `watch_schedule.json` to decide what changed. Do not infer buy/sell/hold, position sizing, execution, or asset-price direction from this artifact.