# Market Thesis Research Bundle

Question: Given the threatened pharma tariffs and pricing deals, will large-cap drugmakers raise U.S. manufacturing capex or domestic production commitments rather than relying mainly on exemptions and price concessions?

What this bundle is: a reasoning and monitoring scaffold. It organizes public evidence into observations, claims, uncertainty branches, thresholds, and a watch plan.

What this bundle is not: primary evidence, live market data, trade advice, or a substitute for official, live, or current web sources.

Core tension: The assessment turns on unresolved evidence and live-source refresh.

Current inference to verify: {'stance': 'current_inference_to_verify', 'statement': 'As of the cutoff, the balance of evidence points to a mixed response: large-cap drugmakers are not relying mainly on exemptions and price concessions alone. They are pairing price concessions with announced U.S. manufacturing capex and domestic production commitments, but the extent to which those announcements translate into incremental, near-term domestic output remains uncertain.', 'confidence': 0.81, 'basis': ['White House MFN policy tied tariff relief to price concessions and broader compliance pressure.', 'Pfizer and AstraZeneca each paired MFN pricing / discounts with large U.S. investment commitments.', 'The White House later said Lilly and Novo Nordisk were also making large U.S. manufacturing investments.', 'Several independent company/sector reports show substantial U.S. manufacturing announcements by major drugmakers.', 'Announced commitments may overlap with already planned capex and can be multi-year, so realized production changes may lag headlines.']} Treat this as a hypothesis that must be refreshed against live official sources, not as a signal.

How to use: read `source_priority.json` first, refresh sources in `live_verification_plan.json`, then use `fact_inference_split.json`, `thresholds.json`, and `watch_schedule.json` to decide what changed. Do not infer buy/sell/hold, position sizing, execution, or asset-price direction from this artifact.