# Market Thesis Research Bundle

Question: Given the same tariff regime, will mid-cap biotechs and CDMOs show the first real wave of API, fill-finish, or biologics localization decisions as smaller firms get squeezed out of exemption negotiations?

What this bundle is: a reasoning and monitoring scaffold. It organizes public evidence into observations, claims, uncertainty branches, thresholds, and a watch plan.

What this bundle is not: primary evidence, live market data, trade advice, or a substitute for official, live, or current web sources.

Core tension: Given the same tariff regime, will mid-cap biotechs and CDMOs show the first real wave of API, fill-finish, or biologics localization decisions as smaller firms get squeezed out of exemption negotiations?

Current inference to verify: {'stance': 'lean_yes', 'confidence': 'medium', 'answer': 'The most plausible first visible wave is still mid-cap biotechs with enough balance-sheet capacity to localize selectively, plus CDMOs that can monetize domestic API, fill-finish, or biologics capacity across multiple sponsors. Smaller development-stage firms look more likely to seek exemptions, pricing concessions, or asset transfers than to fund new localization themselves.', 'status': 'current_inference_to_verify', 'why_this_is_an_inference': 'This is a synthesis from tariff design, negotiating behavior, and company-scale constraints. No single source directly states the full conclusion.', 'not_a_prediction_signal': True} Treat this as a hypothesis that must be refreshed against live official sources, not as a signal.

How to use: read `source_priority.json` first, refresh sources in `live_verification_plan.json`, then use `fact_inference_split.json`, `thresholds.json`, and `watch_schedule.json` to decide what changed. Do not infer buy/sell/hold, position sizing, execution, or asset-price direction from this artifact.