# Market Thesis Research Bundle

Question: Given the Paramount-WBD review, will the UK expand merger and public-interest rules to explicitly cover streaming and on-demand video, changing how future media deals are judged rather than just this one transaction?

What this bundle is: a reasoning and monitoring scaffold. It organizes public evidence into observations, claims, uncertainty branches, thresholds, and a watch plan.

What this bundle is not: primary evidence, live market data, trade advice, or a substitute for official, live, or current web sources.

Core tension: Given the Paramount-WBD review, will the UK expand merger and public-interest rules to explicitly cover streaming and on-demand video, changing how future media deals are judged rather than just this one transaction?

Current inference to verify: {'verdict': 'Likely yes in intent, but not yet enacted', 'confidence': 0.67, 'state': 'announced_or_proposed_not_verified_as_enacted_at_cutoff', 'scope': 'UK merger and public-interest scrutiny for media deals involving streaming and on-demand services', 'assessment': 'The strongest signal is ministerial intent to fold streaming and video-on-demand into future media-merger judgment. That makes a broader rule expansion more likely than a one-off carve-out, but the change remains conditional on the intervention path and on actual legislative follow-through.'} Treat this as a hypothesis that must be refreshed against live official sources, not as a signal.

How to use: read `source_priority.json` first, refresh sources in `live_verification_plan.json`, then use `fact_inference_split.json`, `thresholds.json`, and `watch_schedule.json` to decide what changed. Do not infer buy/sell/hold, position sizing, execution, or asset-price direction from this artifact.