# Market Thesis Research Bundle

Question: Given the tariff-driven surge in container rates, will major U.S. freight, intermodal, and warehousing providers later describe a second-half normalization or hangover in volumes rather than sustained expansion?

What this bundle is: a reasoning and monitoring scaffold. It organizes public evidence into observations, claims, uncertainty branches, thresholds, and a watch plan.

What this bundle is not: primary evidence, live market data, trade advice, or a substitute for official, live, or current web sources.

Core tension: Given the tariff-driven surge in container rates, will major U.S. freight, intermodal, and warehousing providers later describe a second-half normalization or hangover in volumes rather than sustained expansion?

Current inference to verify: {'direction': 'leans_toward_second_half_normalization', 'confidence': 0.68, 'statement': 'The current record more strongly supports a tariff front-loading spike followed by second-half normalization or hangover in volumes than a durable broad-based expansion. The evidence shows real short-run activity improvement, but the commentary still reads like cyclical recovery, inventory pull-forward, and structural warehouse softness rather than a new sustained demand regime.', 'verification_note': 'This is a current inference to verify from later earnings, utilization, booking, occupancy, and renewal commentary, not a prediction signal.'} Treat this as a hypothesis that must be refreshed against live official sources, not as a signal.

How to use: read `source_priority.json` first, refresh sources in `live_verification_plan.json`, then use `fact_inference_split.json`, `thresholds.json`, and `watch_schedule.json` to decide what changed. Do not infer buy/sell/hold, position sizing, execution, or asset-price direction from this artifact.