# Market Thesis Research Bundle

Question: Given the AI investment boom, will U.S. business investment and GDP prints continue to show information-processing equipment and data-center spending as a material growth contributor rather than a one-quarter anomaly?

What this bundle is: a reasoning and monitoring scaffold. It organizes public evidence into observations, claims, uncertainty branches, thresholds, and a watch plan.

What this bundle is not: primary evidence, live market data, trade advice, or a substitute for official, live, or current web sources.

Core tension: Support currently outweighs the anomaly framing, but the margin is not large enough to call it durable without the next BEA refresh. The measured signal is real but incomplete, and the timing of recognition may lag the underlying buildout.

Current inference to verify: {'stance': 'likely_yes', 'confidence': 0.71, 'summary': 'The current evidence supports a live inference that AI-related capital spending is still showing up as a multi-quarter contributor to U.S. business investment and GDP, but the signal is concentrated, lumpy, and revision-sensitive. This is an inference to verify against the next BEA releases and company filings, not a settled forecast.'} Treat this as a hypothesis that must be refreshed against live official sources, not as a signal.

How to use: read `source_priority.json` first, refresh sources in `live_verification_plan.json`, then use `fact_inference_split.json`, `thresholds.json`, and `watch_schedule.json` to decide what changed. Do not infer buy/sell/hold, position sizing, execution, or asset-price direction from this artifact.