# Market Thesis Research Bundle

Question: Given sticky inflation and the new Warsh Fed posture, will the next FOMC statement, minutes, or speeches emphasize readiness to tighten again more than easing, making a 2026 hike the market's base case rather than a tail risk?

What this bundle is: a reasoning and monitoring scaffold. It organizes public evidence into observations, claims, uncertainty branches, thresholds, and a watch plan.

What this bundle is not: primary evidence, live market data, trade advice, or a substitute for official, live, or current web sources.

Core tension: Given sticky inflation and the new Warsh Fed posture, will the next FOMC statement, minutes, or speeches emphasize readiness to tighten again more than easing, making a 2026 hike the market's base case rather than a tail risk?

Current inference to verify: {'verdict': 'leans_yes', 'confidence': 0.74, 'summary': 'Current official communications lean more hawkish than easing-oriented. The June SEP raised the median appropriate 2026 policy rate above the current midpoint, and the April minutes explicitly contemplated further firming if inflation remains above target. That is enough to treat a 2026 hike as an increasingly plausible base-case framing in communication, but the statement itself still avoids explicit hike guidance and the Warsh posture is only directly evidenced through secondary coverage.', 'status': 'inference_to_verify', 'not_a_prediction_signal': True} Treat this as a hypothesis that must be refreshed against live official sources, not as a signal.

How to use: read `source_priority.json` first, refresh sources in `live_verification_plan.json`, then use `fact_inference_split.json`, `thresholds.json`, and `watch_schedule.json` to decide what changed. Do not infer buy/sell/hold, position sizing, execution, or asset-price direction from this artifact.