# Market Thesis Research Bundle

Question: Given the reopening and continued volatility around the Strait of Hormuz, will Iranian crude exports recover enough to show up in tanker-tracking data and Asian refinery sourcing by the next quarter?

What this bundle is: a reasoning and monitoring scaffold. It organizes public evidence into observations, claims, uncertainty branches, thresholds, and a watch plan.

What this bundle is not: primary evidence, live market data, trade advice, or a substitute for official, live, or current web sources.

Core tension: Given the reopening and continued volatility around the Strait of Hormuz, will Iranian crude exports recover enough to show up in tanker-tracking data and Asian refinery sourcing by the next quarter?

Current inference to verify: {'stance': 'lean_no', 'confidence': 0.66, 'status': 'current_inference_to_verify', 'summary': 'A visible rebound in tanker-tracking is more likely than a broad normalization in Asian refinery sourcing, but the evidence currently supports partial reopening and episodic Iranian-linked flows rather than a durable export reset by next quarter.', 'interpretation_boundary': 'This is a live inference from secondary reporting and market behavior, not a settled prediction signal. It should be re-checked against tanker telemetry, customs, and procurement commentary during the evaluation window.'} Treat this as a hypothesis that must be refreshed against live official sources, not as a signal.

How to use: read `source_priority.json` first, refresh sources in `live_verification_plan.json`, then use `fact_inference_split.json`, `thresholds.json`, and `watch_schedule.json` to decide what changed. Do not infer buy/sell/hold, position sizing, execution, or asset-price direction from this artifact.