# Market Thesis Research Bundle

Question: Given AI-load growth, will major U.S. utilities in the fastest-growing data-center regions show large-load demand driving a visibly larger share of rate-base growth and capex guidance by the next earnings cycle?

What this bundle is: a reasoning and monitoring scaffold. It organizes public evidence into observations, claims, uncertainty branches, thresholds, and a watch plan.

What this bundle is not: primary evidence, live market data, trade advice, or a substitute for official, live, or current web sources.

Core tension: Given AI-load growth, will major U.S. utilities in the fastest-growing data-center regions show large-load demand driving a visibly larger share of rate-base growth and capex guidance by the next earnings cycle?

Current inference to verify: {'label': 'likely_yes_but_not_uniformly', 'confidence': 0.74, 'stance': 'current inference to verify', 'summary': 'The best-exposed utilities are already integrating data-center demand into planning, tariff design, and capex narratives, but the effect is uneven and remains mixed with other grid, transmission, generation, and nuclear drivers.'} Treat this as a hypothesis that must be refreshed against live official sources, not as a signal.

How to use: read `source_priority.json` first, refresh sources in `live_verification_plan.json`, then use `fact_inference_split.json`, `thresholds.json`, and `watch_schedule.json` to decide what changed. Do not infer buy/sell/hold, position sizing, execution, or asset-price direction from this artifact.