# Market Thesis Research Bundle

Question: Given the Strait of Hormuz disruption, will war-risk premiums, rerouting, and cargo-insurance costs stay elevated enough to change importer and trader behavior through the next freight-contract reset?

What this bundle is: a reasoning and monitoring scaffold. It organizes public evidence into observations, claims, uncertainty branches, thresholds, and a watch plan.

What this bundle is not: primary evidence, live market data, trade advice, or a substitute for official, live, or current web sources.

Core tension: Given the Strait of Hormuz disruption, will war-risk premiums, rerouting, and cargo-insurance costs stay elevated enough to change importer and trader behavior through the next freight-contract reset?

Current inference to verify: {'stance': 'yes', 'confidence': 0.74, 'status': 'current inference to verify', 'summary': 'The current evidence supports the inference that elevated war-risk pricing, rerouting, and cargo-insurance costs are still high enough to change importer and trader behavior through the next freight-contract reset, especially for energy-linked and Gulf-exposed flows. The central lane remains constrained, security warnings remain severe, insurers are still repricing risk upward, and importer sourcing behavior is already adjusting. This is an inference from incomplete live market signals, not a prediction signal.'} Treat this as a hypothesis that must be refreshed against live official sources, not as a signal.

How to use: read `source_priority.json` first, refresh sources in `live_verification_plan.json`, then use `fact_inference_split.json`, `thresholds.json`, and `watch_schedule.json` to decide what changed. Do not infer buy/sell/hold, position sizing, execution, or asset-price direction from this artifact.