# Market Thesis Research Bundle

Question: Given the oil repricing from the U.S.-Iran agreement, will the June 2026 FOMC communication stay on a hold-to-hawkish footing rather than reopening near-term cut talk, as judged by the statement, dot plot, and press conference?

What this bundle is: a reasoning and monitoring scaffold. It organizes public evidence into observations, claims, uncertainty branches, thresholds, and a watch plan.

What this bundle is not: primary evidence, live market data, trade advice, or a substitute for official, live, or current web sources.

Core tension: Given the oil repricing from the U.S.-Iran agreement, will the June 2026 FOMC communication stay on a hold-to-hawkish footing rather than reopening near-term cut talk, as judged by the statement, dot plot, and press conference?

Current inference to verify: {'lean': 'hold_to_hawkish', 'confidence': 0.66, 'status': 'pre_release', 'summary': 'At cutoff, the evidence favors a June 2026 FOMC communication that remains on hold with cautious, mildly hawkish framing rather than reopening near-term cut talk. The oil repricing is a disinflationary input, but current inflation, producer-price, and labor data still bias the Committee toward patience.'} Treat this as a hypothesis that must be refreshed against live official sources, not as a signal.

How to use: read `source_priority.json` first, refresh sources in `live_verification_plan.json`, then use `fact_inference_split.json`, `thresholds.json`, and `watch_schedule.json` to decide what changed. Do not infer buy/sell/hold, position sizing, execution, or asset-price direction from this artifact.