# Market Thesis Research Bundle

Question: Given the AI infrastructure buildout, will advanced packaging and OSAT bottlenecks become a more important constraint than front-end wafer-fab capacity for AI supply by the next two earnings cycles?

What this bundle is: a reasoning and monitoring scaffold. It organizes public evidence into observations, claims, uncertainty branches, thresholds, and a watch plan.

What this bundle is not: primary evidence, live market data, trade advice, or a substitute for official, live, or current web sources.

Core tension: The assessment turns on unresolved evidence and live-source refresh.

Current inference to verify: {'assessment_type': 'current_inference_to_verify', 'stance': 'lean_yes', 'confidence': 'medium', 'answer': 'yes_most_likely', 'summary': 'The balance of current evidence favors advanced packaging and OSAT becoming the more operationally important near-term constraint on usable AI supply by the next two earnings cycles, while front-end wafer-fab capacity remains tight and still material. The inference is incremental, not absolute: wafers still matter, but packaging/test/assembly appears closer to the immediate bottleneck edge.', 'why_this_is_not_final': 'This is a live inference from company commentary and capex plans, not a measured industry-wide capacity comparison. It should be re-checked against the next two earnings cycles.'} Treat this as a hypothesis that must be refreshed against live official sources, not as a signal.

How to use: read `source_priority.json` first, refresh sources in `live_verification_plan.json`, then use `fact_inference_split.json`, `thresholds.json`, and `watch_schedule.json` to decide what changed. Do not infer buy/sell/hold, position sizing, execution, or asset-price direction from this artifact.