# Market Thesis Research Bundle

Question: Given the scramble for dependable power, will hyperscalers move from headline nuclear PPAs to transactions that actually finance restarts, new builds, or SMRs with meaningful balance-sheet commitments?

What this bundle is: a reasoning and monitoring scaffold. It organizes public evidence into observations, claims, uncertainty branches, thresholds, and a watch plan.

What this bundle is not: primary evidence, live market data, trade advice, or a substitute for official, live, or current web sources.

Core tension: Given the scramble for dependable power, will hyperscalers move from headline nuclear PPAs to transactions that actually finance restarts, new builds, or SMRs with meaningful balance-sheet commitments?

Current inference to verify: {'classification': 'current_inference', 'direction': 'selective_yes', 'confidence': 'medium', 'summary': 'The public record through the cutoff shows a real but limited shift away from pure headline PPAs. Amazon has disclosed a direct $500 million-style capital commitment to X-energy, and Meta has disclosed funding support for TerraPower plus financial support for existing nuclear plant economics. But the dominant pattern remains hybrid and PPA-led, with utilities, developers, and DOE lending still carrying much of the financing burden, and with no broad, disclosed hyperscaler balance-sheet financing regime yet visible.', 'verification_standard': 'Treat this as a live inference, not a prediction. Upgrade only if new public disclosures show direct equity, debt, guarantees, or other recourse commitments from hyperscalers into nuclear project financing with disclosed amounts, milestones, and risk allocation.'} Treat this as a hypothesis that must be refreshed against live official sources, not as a signal.

How to use: read `source_priority.json` first, refresh sources in `live_verification_plan.json`, then use `fact_inference_split.json`, `thresholds.json`, and `watch_schedule.json` to decide what changed. Do not infer buy/sell/hold, position sizing, execution, or asset-price direction from this artifact.