# Market Thesis Research Bundle

Question: Given chipflation, will FOMC speeches, minutes, or the next SEP start treating AI-related hardware inflation as a broader inflation impulse rather than a one-off relative-price shock?

What this bundle is: a reasoning and monitoring scaffold. It organizes public evidence into observations, claims, uncertainty branches, thresholds, and a watch plan.

What this bundle is not: primary evidence, live market data, trade advice, or a substitute for official, live, or current web sources.

Core tension: Given chipflation, will FOMC speeches, minutes, or the next SEP start treating AI-related hardware inflation as a broader inflation impulse rather than a one-off relative-price shock?

Current inference to verify: {'direction': 'unlikely_yet', 'confidence': 0.79, 'summary': 'As of the cutoff, Federal Reserve communication acknowledges AI-linked hardware and software price pressure, but the framing remains sector-specific, temporary, or measurement-related. There is not yet evidence of a committee-level shift that treats AI chipflation as a broader inflation impulse.'} Treat this as a hypothesis that must be refreshed against live official sources, not as a signal.

How to use: read `source_priority.json` first, refresh sources in `live_verification_plan.json`, then use `fact_inference_split.json`, `thresholds.json`, and `watch_schedule.json` to decide what changed. Do not infer buy/sell/hold, position sizing, execution, or asset-price direction from this artifact.