# Market Thesis Research Bundle

Question: Given the jet-fuel shock from the Iran-linked oil spike, will major airlines keep cutting guidance or raising fares fast enough to defend margins, or will demand elasticity start to dominate?

What this bundle is: a reasoning and monitoring scaffold. It organizes public evidence into observations, claims, uncertainty branches, thresholds, and a watch plan.

What this bundle is not: primary evidence, live market data, trade advice, or a substitute for official, live, or current web sources.

Core tension: Given the jet-fuel shock from the Iran-linked oil spike, will major airlines keep cutting guidance or raising fares fast enough to defend margins, or will demand elasticity start to dominate?

Current inference to verify: {'stance': 'leans_margin_defense_now', 'counterforce': 'elasticity_risk_building', 'confidence': 0.68, 'claim': 'The current primary-source set still leans toward airlines defending margins through capacity discipline, fare and ancillary pricing, and selective guidance management, but only if the fuel shock does not stay elevated long enough to force broader demand elasticity into the lead.', 'verification_logic': 'If upcoming airline updates keep showing strong or stable unit revenue, restrained capacity, and only partial fuel recovery assumptions, the margin-defense thesis remains valid. If multiple carriers start cutting guidance again or reporting weaker fare power and booking quality, elasticity becomes the dominant mechanism.', 'counterclaims_preserved': ['A large part of the observed resilience may be temporary and driven by capacity cuts rather than demand strength.', 'Ancillary fee increases can overstate the breadth of fare pass-through.', 'Management guidance may lag actual consumer behavior.']} Treat this as a hypothesis that must be refreshed against live official sources, not as a signal.

How to use: read `source_priority.json` first, refresh sources in `live_verification_plan.json`, then use `fact_inference_split.json`, `thresholds.json`, and `watch_schedule.json` to decide what changed. Do not infer buy/sell/hold, position sizing, execution, or asset-price direction from this artifact.