# Market Thesis Research Bundle

Question: Given the oil shock, will major U.S. shale producers keep capital discipline and avoid a broad production ramp, indicating that higher prices are not quickly neutralizing the supply squeeze?

What this bundle is: a reasoning and monitoring scaffold. It organizes public evidence into observations, claims, uncertainty branches, thresholds, and a watch plan.

What this bundle is not: primary evidence, live market data, trade advice, or a substitute for official, live, or current web sources.

Core tension: Given the oil shock, will major U.S. shale producers keep capital discipline and avoid a broad production ramp, indicating that higher prices are not quickly neutralizing the supply squeeze?

Current inference to verify: {'verdict': 'likely_yes', 'confidence': 0.71, 'status': 'inference_not_prediction', 'summary': 'Primary-source evidence currently supports the inference that major U.S. shale producers are still emphasizing capital discipline, free cash flow, and shareholder returns, with only modest or selective production growth. Market-wide activity is restrained rather than accelerating sharply, so there is not yet evidence of a broad ramp that would quickly neutralize the supply squeeze.', 'key_caveat': 'This is still a live inference. If prices remain elevated long enough for next-quarter guidance to rise broadly across major shale operators, the inference weakens quickly.'} Treat this as a hypothesis that must be refreshed against live official sources, not as a signal.

How to use: read `source_priority.json` first, refresh sources in `live_verification_plan.json`, then use `fact_inference_split.json`, `thresholds.json`, and `watch_schedule.json` to decide what changed. Do not infer buy/sell/hold, position sizing, execution, or asset-price direction from this artifact.