# Market Thesis Research Bundle

Question: Given bond volatility and war-driven inflation pressure, will the BOJ raise rates at the June 15-16 meeting and keep signaling that the tightening cycle is still active?

What this bundle is: a reasoning and monitoring scaffold. It organizes public evidence into observations, claims, uncertainty branches, thresholds, and a watch plan.

What this bundle is not: primary evidence, live market data, trade advice, or a substitute for official, live, or current web sources.

Core tension: Given bond volatility and war-driven inflation pressure, will the BOJ raise rates at the June 15-16 meeting and keep signaling that the tightening cycle is still active?

Current inference to verify: {'stance': 'lean_yes', 'summary': 'As of the cutoff, primary-source BOJ communication still supports an active normalization cycle, so a June hike remains live rather than closed off. The stronger verified claim is that hawkish signaling is still active; the weaker claim is that the June 15-16 meeting will actually raise rates.', 'confidence': 'moderate', 'confidence_score': 0.64, 'verify_against': ['June 15-16 policy statement and vote split', 'post-meeting guidance language on continued normalization', 'any language on bond-market functioning or purchase adjustments']} Treat this as a hypothesis that must be refreshed against live official sources, not as a signal.

How to use: read `source_priority.json` first, refresh sources in `live_verification_plan.json`, then use `fact_inference_split.json`, `thresholds.json`, and `watch_schedule.json` to decide what changed. Do not infer buy/sell/hold, position sizing, execution, or asset-price direction from this artifact.