# Market Thesis Research Bundle

Question: Given the recent term-premium pressure and tariff-refund cash-flow uncertainty, will the U.S. Treasury keep coupon sizes steady and lean on bills through the next refunding cycle rather than signaling an earlier increase in duration supply?

What this bundle is: a reasoning and monitoring scaffold. It organizes public evidence into observations, claims, uncertainty branches, thresholds, and a watch plan.

What this bundle is not: primary evidence, live market data, trade advice, or a substitute for official, live, or current web sources.

Core tension: Given the recent term-premium pressure and tariff-refund cash-flow uncertainty, will the U.S. Treasury keep coupon sizes steady and lean on bills through the next refunding cycle rather than signaling an earlier increase in duration supply?

Current inference to verify: {'verdict': 'likely_yes', 'confidence': 0.84, 'summary': 'The current official record points to Treasury keeping nominal coupon, FRN, and TIPS sizes steady through the next refunding cycle while using bills and cash-management bills to absorb near-term funding variability. The earliest explicit discussion of coupon increases in the reviewed materials is early 2027, with forward guidance expected several quarters in advance.'} Treat this as a hypothesis that must be refreshed against live official sources, not as a signal.

How to use: read `source_priority.json` first, refresh sources in `live_verification_plan.json`, then use `fact_inference_split.json`, `thresholds.json`, and `watch_schedule.json` to decide what changed. Do not infer buy/sell/hold, position sizing, execution, or asset-price direction from this artifact.