# Market Thesis Research Bundle

Question: Given the Senate crypto legislation and bank/payment-incumbent activity, will regulated stablecoins achieve visible merchant settlement and payment-network integration rather than remaining mostly trading collateral?

What this bundle is: a reasoning and monitoring scaffold. It organizes public evidence into observations, claims, uncertainty branches, thresholds, and a watch plan.

What this bundle is not: primary evidence, live market data, trade advice, or a substitute for official, live, or current web sources.

Core tension: The current evidence supports visible merchant settlement and payment-network integration already emerging in product form through Visa, Mastercard, Shopify, Stripe, and PayPal. The same evidence also shows stablecoins are still predominantly used for trading and investing, so the most defensible near-term inference is a dual-use market rather than a clean displacement of collateral-heavy usage.

Current inference to verify: The current evidence supports visible merchant settlement and payment-network integration already emerging in product form through Visa, Mastercard, Shopify, Stripe, and PayPal. The same evidence also shows stablecoins are still predominantly used for trading and investing, so the most defensible near-term inference is a dual-use market rather than a clean displacement of collateral-heavy usage. Treat this as a hypothesis that must be refreshed against live official sources, not as a signal.

How to use: read `source_priority.json` first, refresh sources in `live_verification_plan.json`, then use `fact_inference_split.json`, `thresholds.json`, and `watch_schedule.json` to decide what changed. Do not infer buy/sell/hold, position sizing, execution, or asset-price direction from this artifact.