# Market Thesis Research Bundle

Question: Given tariff policy uncertainty, will U.S. core goods inflation or retailer gross-margin commentary show visible tariff pass-through by late 2026?

What this bundle is: a reasoning and monitoring scaffold. It organizes public evidence into observations, claims, uncertainty branches, thresholds, and a watch plan.

What this bundle is not: primary evidence, live market data, trade advice, or a substitute for official, live, or current web sources.

Core tension: Given tariff policy uncertainty, will U.S. core goods inflation or retailer gross-margin commentary show visible tariff pass-through by late 2026?

Current inference to verify: {'status': 'inferred', 'answer_frame': 'The available evidence supports a cautious current inference that tariff pass-through is already visible at the retailer-commentary level, but not yet clearly in broad official core-goods inflation. The late-2026 question remains open until the next few CPI/PCE prints and successive retailer earnings calls either broaden that signal or leave it confined to anecdotes and offset-heavy margin outcomes.', 'confidence': 'medium', 'why_not_higher': 'Broad aggregates are still mild, policy scope is still adjustable, and retailer margin data are confounded by mix and productivity.', 'why_not_lower': 'Multiple primary sources already mention tariff-related costs, price increases, headwinds, and refunds in ways that are consistent with early pass-through.'} Treat this as a hypothesis that must be refreshed against live official sources, not as a signal.

How to use: read `source_priority.json` first, refresh sources in `live_verification_plan.json`, then use `fact_inference_split.json`, `thresholds.json`, and `watch_schedule.json` to decide what changed. Do not infer buy/sell/hold, position sizing, execution, or asset-price direction from this artifact.