# Market Thesis Research Bundle

Question: Given the Senate stablecoin bill, will lawmakers preserve the restriction on idle-balance rewards, signaling that deposit-leakage concerns are being taken seriously rather than relaxed?

What this bundle is: a reasoning and monitoring scaffold. It organizes public evidence into observations, claims, uncertainty branches, thresholds, and a watch plan.

What this bundle is not: primary evidence, live market data, trade advice, or a substitute for official, live, or current web sources.

Core tension: The Senate stablecoin framework explicitly keeps payment-stablecoin issuers from paying holders interest or yield, which supports a deposit-franchise protection reading, but the live tension is whether indirect rewards, affiliate programs, or wallet/exchange workarounds can still recreate yield in practice.

Current inference to verify: As of the cutoff, lawmakers have preserved the explicit idle-balance reward restriction in the Senate's enacted GENIUS Act text; the open verification question is whether later Senate action, conference drafting, or implementation guidance relaxes that restriction through indirect or affiliate-mediated reward structures. Treat this as a hypothesis that must be refreshed against live official sources, not as a signal.

How to use: read `source_priority.json` first, refresh sources in `live_verification_plan.json`, then use `fact_inference_split.json`, `thresholds.json`, and `watch_schedule.json` to decide what changed. Do not infer buy/sell/hold, position sizing, execution, or asset-price direction from this artifact.