# Market Thesis Research Bundle

Question: Given China's rare-earth export controls, will defense and magnet-dependent industrial companies show sustained supply-chain or margin stress by the next earnings cycle rather than treating it as a one-off headline?

What this bundle is: a reasoning and monitoring scaffold. It organizes public evidence into observations, claims, uncertainty branches, thresholds, and a watch plan.

What this bundle is not: primary evidence, live market data, trade advice, or a substitute for official, live, or current web sources.

Core tension: The public policy record says China's rare-earth regime is licensing-based and intended to preserve civilian-use flows, but company filings already show real delays, higher costs, and phased-compliance pain in defense and industrial supply chains.

Current inference to verify: Current inference to verify: the rare-earth controls are more than a one-off headline for some defense and magnet-dependent industrial companies, but the evidence is still selective. By the next earnings cycle, the key question is whether approval latency, procurement friction, and higher input costs remain visible in filings and guidance, or whether inventory buffers and substitute sourcing absorb the shock enough that the issue fades to a temporary headline. Treat this as a hypothesis that must be refreshed against live official sources, not as a signal.

How to use: read `source_priority.json` first, refresh sources in `live_verification_plan.json`, then use `fact_inference_split.json`, `thresholds.json`, and `watch_schedule.json` to decide what changed. Do not infer buy/sell/hold, position sizing, execution, or asset-price direction from this artifact.